Six weeks into the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, early assumptions of swift success are being challenged. While Washington and Jerusalem demonstrated strong intelligence at the highest levels of Iran's leadership, they appear to have underestimated the depth of Iran's missile and drone capabilities and the resilience of its military infrastructure. Far from collapsing, Tehran has continued to strike regional targets and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, proving it can generate global instability without deploying a nuclear weapon.

Hopes that internal unrest would trigger regime change have also faded. Previous protests were brutally suppressed, and foreign bombardment has instead rallied many Iranians around their government. As a temporary ceasefire brokered by President Donald Trump nears its end, the conflict has evolved beyond its initial objectives, with Iran focused on survival and demonstrating it can withstand sustained aerial assault.

The economic consequences are mounting. With a significant share of global oil and gas shipments halted, energy prices have surged, raising fears of worldwide recession, fuel shortages and wider supply chain disruption. European governments face dwindling reserves, and concerns are growing over knock-on effects ranging from aviation fuel scarcity to food packaging shortages.

Although American officials insist they were prevailing before the ceasefire, reopening vital shipping lanes without a ground intervention would be difficult and costly. Regional militias and the threat of further escalation complicate any diplomatic breakthrough. Even if a temporary peace holds, the prospect of renewed confrontation between Iran and the United States remains high.